Kamala Harris's choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate leads to $123 million in polymarket bets

Users of Polymarket were surprised this morning by Kamala Harris's announcement of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice-presidential pick. Walz was considered an unlikely candidate, with odds on the prediction market reflecting low expectations.

polymarket odds changes

For the past week, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro had been the clear frontrunner, holding odds above 60%. However, Walz's chances, which were just 4% four days ago, began to rise yesterday, reaching around 30% as reports suggested Harris was choosing between him and Shapiro.

Sudden Shift

The situation rapidly changed when a Minneapolis reporter tweeted about increased activity at Walz's residence. Within fifteen minutes, Walz's odds surged from 37% to 73%, while Shapiro's odds fell sharply, yet remained above 30%. The Polymarket site experienced intense activity, with odds updating almost every time the page was refreshed.

Early Indications

Polymarket users saw the odds favor Walz 18 minutes before CNN confirmed the news, indicating a swift reaction to real-time information. The announcement affected $125 million in bets on who Harris would select, showing the significant financial stakes involved.

Outcome for Bettors

While many bettors faced losses, those who placed early bets on Walz enjoyed substantial returns. A $100 bet placed on Friday could yield over $2,000 following today's unexpected result.

Conclusion

Despite the excitement for some, the event highlights the unpredictability of political betting markets. The sudden turn of events underscores the challenges of making accurate predictions in a volatile environment.