Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, shares his reservations regarding the potential approval of a spot Ethereum ETF by the U.S. SEC. Drawing insights from the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, Yusko highlights challenges and potential impacts on the cryptocurrency market.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: A Critical View:
Importance and Challenges Yusko acknowledges the significance of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals for broader adoption but offers a critical perspective. He emphasizes that the average investor, particularly from the Boomer generation, may lack the technological know-how to grasp Bitcoin's importance or the innovation of triple-entry accounting. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to Yusko, serve as an intermediary step for wider acceptance, with platforms like Coinbase and Kraken playing a crucial role in simplifying the process for less tech-savvy investors.
Volatility and Bitcoin's Evolution:
Natural Progression Addressing concerns about reduced volatility with spot Bitcoin ETFs, Yusko sees decreased volatility as a natural progression as the market matures. He draws parallels with Bitcoin's early days, asserting that its evolution from an experimental project to an established asset class inherently leads to decreased volatility. Wearing a shirt with the slogan "Embrace Volatility," Yusko emphasizes the value of volatility in Bitcoin's journey.
Bitcoin's Price Predictions:
Fair Value and Future Movement Yusko reiterates his prediction of Bitcoin's fair value, placing it in the low $50,000s. He anticipates approaching this figure by the next halving and envisions a potential doubling of fair value post-halving, potentially pushing Bitcoin into a six-digit price range in 2024. However, he foresees less drastic price movements due to reduced market liquidity and leverage.
Long-Term Outlook and Ethereum ETF Approval:
Cautionary Stance on Ethereum ETF Yusko expresses caution regarding the long-term impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the approval likelihood for a spot Ethereum ETF. He suggests that the SEC's hesitancy and evolving regulatory stance on Ethereum may pose challenges. Yusko estimates the chances of SEC approval for a spot Ethereum ETF to be less than 50%, emphasizing the need for diligent efforts by asset management firms to navigate the approval process.