OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Says Superintelligence Could Be Here in Less Than Three Years, Believes It Will Surpass Human Capability

Superintelligence Just a Few Years Away, Says OpenAI’s Sam Altman

As artificial intelligence continues to shape industries, economies, and everyday life at an unprecedented pace, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, is preparing the world for the arrival of something far greater – superintelligence.

In a blog post titled The Intelligence Age, published on September 23, Altman shared his vision for this new era, suggesting that humanity is only a few thousand days away from developing superintelligent machines.

Altman wrote,

"It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days! It may take longer, but I'm confident we'll get there."

His words signal a shift in expectations, suggesting that a future dominated by superintelligence may arrive much sooner than anticipated.

For context, a few thousand days could be as short as three years, potentially ushering in a future where machine intelligence surpasses that of humans.

A Vision of Unimaginable Technological Progress

Altman’s outlook suggests that humanity is on the verge of entering a new age—one driven by computational power and human will.

He draws a parallel between previous technological leaps and the era he predicts is about to unfold, stating,

"Technology brought us from the Stone Age to the Agricultural Age and then to the Industrial Age. From here, the path to the intelligence age is paved with computation, energy, and human will."

Altman believes that this forthcoming period will see people accomplishing feats that would have seemed like magic to earlier generations. The acceleration of human capability, in his view, is nothing new, but it is reaching levels that will make the impossible possible.

In his blog, Altman emphasised the scale of progress humanity has made through artificial intelligence, stating that it was achieved because "deep learning worked, got predictably better with scale, and we dedicated increasing resources to it."

He acknowledges that while there are still many details left to be resolved in the quest for superintelligence, he remains confident that these obstacles will eventually be overcome.

AI: A Catalyst for Prosperity

Altman paints a picture of a future where AI-driven prosperity becomes so embedded in daily life that the advancements we see today will seem trivial.

He addresses one of the most common concerns surrounding AI—the potential displacement of jobs. He offers a historical perspective, noting,

"Many of the jobs we do today would have looked like trifling wastes of time to people a few hundred years ago, but nobody is looking back at the past, wishing they were a lamplighter."

His statement draws attention to how technological progress has always shifted societal roles, and that the future will likely be no different.

He suggests that if we could look forward a century, the prosperity we would see would seem as unimaginable to us now as today’s world would have been to past generations.

This perspective seems particularly relevant given the current fears surrounding automation and job loss.

Altman’s suggestion that AI will contribute to unimaginable prosperity implies that the technologies we fear today may, in fact, lay the foundation for a future of abundance and creativity.

The Countdown to Superintelligence

In his essay, Altman envisions a world where superintelligent AI will enable humanity to achieve far more than was ever thought possible.

He believes that in the coming decades, personal AI teams will be common, allowing individuals to create virtually anything they can imagine. Altman’s optimism is tempered with a practical acknowledgment of the challenges ahead.

He admits that it may take longer than expected to achieve superintelligence but remains confident that humanity will get there eventually.

His reference to superintelligence arriving in "a few thousand days" has sparked discussions in the AI community about how soon this transformation could occur.

While Altman remains optimistic, other experts in the field debate the timeline, emphasising that the exact arrival of superintelligence is still uncertain.

OpenAI’s Strategic Timing Amid Funding Push

Altman’s blog post arrived just as OpenAI is preparing to raise substantial funds to fuel its ambitions.

The company, known for developing the widely used ChatGPT, is reportedly seeking to raise between $5 billion and $7 billion in new funding, which could push its valuation to as high as $150 billion, up from $80 billion.

According to reports, New York-based Thrive Capital is leading this funding round with an offer of $1.25 billion.

A minimum investment of $250 million is expected from individual investors.

This push for capital seems well-timed, coinciding with OpenAI’s announcement of a new family of AI models, dubbed "o1-preview."

These models, which were revealed just two weeks prior to Altman’s blog post, use reinforcement learning and a novel approach called ‘chain of thought’ to improve their ability to answer questions.

OpenAI has stated that the o1-preview models are designed to minimise the issue of AI hallucination—where AI systems generate false or misleading information in response to queries.

The convergence of Altman’s thought-provoking essay and the release of new AI models paints a picture of a company poised to drive the next wave of innovation.

As OpenAI looks to secure additional funding, Altman’s vision for the future of AI could be a pivotal factor in attracting investors eager to be part of this transformative journey.

The Intelligence Age Beckons

Altman’s portrayal of an impending "Intelligence Age" reflects his belief that humanity is on the cusp of an era where AI will redefine what it means to be human.

His optimistic view of AI as a tool for unlocking new levels of prosperity and creativity is a powerful counter-narrative to fears about job loss and ethical dilemmas.

As Altman himself put it,

"If a lamplighter could see the world today, he would think the prosperity all around him was unimaginable."

If his predictions hold true, the intelligence age will offer possibilities that today’s world cannot yet fully grasp.