What’s at Stake for Google as the US Government Targets Chrome

A Push to Break Google’s Grip on Browsing

US antitrust authorities are taking aim at Google’s Chrome browser, proposing its sale as a drastic measure to curb the tech giant’s dominance in online search and advertising.

The US Department of Justice (DoJ) has formally recommended the divestiture to US District Judge Amit Mehta, who is set to decide on remedies to counter Google’s monopoly next year.

What Makes Chrome So Valuable?

Chrome, launched in 2008, has grown into the most widely used internet browser globally, with over three billion users.

Its success dwarfs competitors like Microsoft’s Edge and Apple’s Safari.

The browser’s significance goes beyond providing access to websites; it serves as a goldmine of user data, which fuels Google’s algorithms and enhances services such as Maps and targeted advertising.

Beth Egan, a professor at Syracuse University, explained that losing Chrome would profoundly impact Google’s operations.

She noted:

“It would greatly alter (Google’s) business model.”

Without Chrome, Google’s ability to collect data for its ad-targeting systems and AI development would be significantly weakened.

The Financial Stakes

Putting a price tag on Chrome is no easy feat.

A Bloomberg analyst has suggested that the browser could be worth at least $15 billion, but this estimate is speculative due to the lack of similar sales in the browser market.

For context, in 2016, a Chinese investment group acquired a browser from Norway’s Opera Software ASA for $600 million.

However, that browser had just 350 million users, a small fraction of Chrome’s massive global audience.

Could Chrome Survive Without Google?

Experts suggest Chrome’s future popularity would hinge on its ability to maintain the features and reliability that users depend on.

Emarketer senior analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf said:

“This assumes Chrome retains its most popular features and continues innovating.”

She pointed out that users stick with browsers due to convenience, trust, and experience rather than brand loyalty.

Some argue the DoJ’s claim that Chrome’s dominance stems from being pre-installed on devices doesn’t fully reflect user behaviour.

People often choose Chrome because of its speed, compatibility, and customisation options, not just because it’s a default.

Who Might Buy Chrome?

Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf remarked,

“It’s likely that any company with deep enough pockets to afford Chrome is already under antitrust scrutiny.”

She speculated that US-based artificial intelligence firms could emerge as potential contenders, though such acquisitions would likely attract regulatory pushback.

Elon Musk’s AI ventures, for instance, might be considered, given his financial resources and connections.

However, such a move could invite new concerns about market concentration, and it’s unclear whether regulatory bodies would view this favourably.

What Does the Justice Department Want?

The DoJ’s antitrust efforts aim to dismantle what they view as an over-consolidation of power in the tech sector.

Selling Chrome would be one step in reducing Google’s hold on data and search markets.

However, some analysts are sceptical about the proposed measures.

Angelo Zino of CFRA labelled the DoJ’s remedies as “extreme and unlikely to be imposed by the court.”

Judge Mehta will have the final say, but the outcome is far from certain.

The Trump Administration’s Role in the Debate

The upcoming Trump administration introduces significant uncertainty into the case.

Donald Trump has voiced concerns about breaking up Google, suggesting it could harm the United States’ global standing.

Back in October, he remarked, “China is afraid of Google,” implying that dismantling the company might weaken its ability to compete on the international stage.

However, it remains unclear how the administration will approach the Justice Department’s proposals.

This uncertainty leaves both Google and its opponents preparing for potential outcomes that could redefine the landscape of online browsing and advertising.