作者：@0xkyle 编译：AididiaoJP，Foresight News
作为一名交易员，核心目标始终是寻找高确信度、具备不对称回报潜力的投资机会。我热衷于发掘这类高风险回报比的交易，比如 20 美元的 Solana、0.1 BTC 时的 Node Monkes（后来涨至 0.9 BTC）、2000 万美元市值的 Zerebro 等等。
然而如今这类不对称机会正日益减少。原因有很多，它们共同构成了一个庞大而棘手的问题。
以这张图表为例，它展示的是 Zerebro，从 2000 万美元市值一路飙升至 7 亿美元峰值，带来 30 倍回报；但它也从高点下跌了 99%，几乎回到了最初的起点。
这就引出了第一个问题：众所周知，这个行业里大多数代币「终究需要抛售」。这形成了一个恶性循环，阻碍了长期增值资产的产生。超过 90% 的加密资产本质都是投机驱动，但纯粹的投机并非永动机，当市场参与者失去兴趣或无法持续获利时，投机需求就会消退。用户@0xaporia 的推文一针见血：
第二个问题是加密市场的结构缺陷。10 月 10 日的插针事件充分暴露了这一点：主要交易所几乎都让大量用户蒙受损失，超过 400 亿美元未平仓合约瞬间蒸发，这给所有参与者上了金融第一课：存在出错的可能时，就一定会出错。这种风险导致机构和大型资金望而却步，既然存在归零风险，何必冒险？
第三和第四个问题存在已久：一是每日新发行代币数量泛滥，二是这些代币的初始估值过高。每个新项目都在稀释市场整体流动性，而高估值发行则压缩了公开市场投资者的获利空间。当然你可以选择做空，但若整个行业都依赖做空盈利，长期来看绝非好事。
还有其他未尽述的问题，但以上几点最值得关注。回到本文主题：为何当前加密市场难寻不对称机会？
优质项目发行估值过高，价格已充分甚至过度反映预期
代币发行数量泛滥稀释价值，今天出现一个完美 L1，明天又出现第二个，让人怀疑是否都名副其实
行业迭代速度过快，难以建立长期投资信念，龙头项目可能一年内就失去优势
市场结构问题阻碍资金入场，投资者要求更高回报率来补偿归零风险，若实际回报不足，投资逻辑便不成立
最致命的是，多数代币本质只是融资工具，抛售代币为运营募资，真正价值却集中在股权端。这些缺乏价值积累、不具公司权益的代币，本质上只是击鼓传花的投机工具，而非真正投资。
这些都不是新观点。我为何旧调重弹？因为尽管人尽皆知，却无人改变投资方式。大家依然追逐新叙事、追捧新热点，重复无效策略。这恰似疯狂的定义：重复相同行为，却期待不同结果。
我始终追寻下一个不对称机会。若循规蹈矩，只能获得平庸回报。我认为下一个加密不对称机会在于：
挖矿收益
区块链企业的股权投资
交易所平台币
寻找被严重低估的价值标的，这类确实存在，但凤毛麟角
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