XRP may be approaching a pivotal turning point after months of sustained downside pressure. Technical signals and improving onchain data suggest the token could be setting up for a 20% rebound in March, provided key resistance levels are cleared.XRP is currently down more than 50% since October 2025 and has posted five consecutive red monthly candles. March could mark the first meaningful attempt to break that bearish streak.Key TakeawaysXRP is forming a double-bottom pattern, targeting a potential 20% upside move.Whale selling pressure has eased sharply, while large-holder balances are rising.A breakout above $1.50 is critical to confirm the bullish scenario.Failure at resistance could reopen downside risk toward $1.00.Double-Bottom Pattern Signals Potential 20% XRP UpsideXRP has twice defended the $1.30–$1.35 support zone in February, forming what appears to be a classic double-bottom reversal pattern on the daily chart.A double bottom typically signals trend exhaustion after a prolonged decline. The pattern confirms when price breaks above the neckline, which for XRP sits near $1.50.If XRP achieves a decisive close above this level, the technical target projects toward $1.68–$1.70, representing a gain of roughly 20% from current prices.This level would also place XRP back into a mid-range zone last seen before the sharp leg lower earlier this year.Whale Behavior Turns Supportive as Distribution FadesOnchain data shows a notable shift in large-holder behavior, strengthening the bullish case.According to CryptoQuant data:XRP whale net flows (90-day moving average) have improved to around -3.3 million XRP, down from -33.5 million XRP in December.This sharp reduction in outflows suggests that distribution has largely cooled, even as price fell another ~25% over the same period.At the same time, Glassnode data shows that wallets holding at least 1,000 XRP have resumed accumulation, indicating that larger holders may be positioning near local lows.A similar slowdown in whale selling occurred in April 2025, which preceded a 50%+ XRP rally in the months that followed.A clean flip of whale flows back into positive territory would further reinforce the probability of a March breakout.Resistance Levels That Could Stall the RallyDespite improving signals, XRP still faces important technical hurdles.The $1.68–$1.70 target zone sits above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) — a level XRP has repeatedly failed to reclaim throughout February.A rejection at the 50-day EMA could invalidate the double-bottom setup and shift the structure into a bear pennant, with downside risk extending toward $1.00, or roughly 30% lower from current levels.Macro Risks Remain a Key VariableEven with constructive technical and onchain signals, macro conditions remain a wildcard.Potential headwinds include:A renewed risk-off rotation driven by AI-sector volatilityGeopolitical tensions, particularly involving the US and IranBroader liquidity tightening impacting high-beta altcoinsThese factors could cap upside or delay confirmation, even if XRP’s chart structure continues to improve.Bottom LineXRP is showing its strongest bullish setup in months, supported by a double-bottom pattern and easing whale distribution. A confirmed breakout above $1.50 would significantly increase the odds of a 20% rally toward $1.68–$1.70 in March.However, failure to reclaim key resistance — or renewed macro stress — could quickly invalidate the setup. For now, XRP sits at a technical inflection point where March may finally determine whether the downtrend breaks or extends, according to Cointelegraph.
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