GEOPOLITICS | Polymarket Launches Contracts Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions

On March 1, following a U.S. airstrike on Iran, decentralized prediction platform Polymarket introduced over ten contracts related to the U.S.-Iran conflict. According to BlockBeats, the total amount wagered on these contracts has exceeded $600 million. One notable contract, "Will Khamenei lose his position as Supreme Leader by March 31?" settled at 100% following confirmation of his death, with a single market transaction volume reaching $45 million. Another contract, "Will the U.S. strike Iran by a certain date?" launched in December last year, has accumulated a transaction volume of $529 million, making it one of the largest markets in the platform's history. Additionally, the contract "Will the Iranian regime collapse by June 30?" currently shows a probability of 54%, while the contract "Will the U.S. deploy troops to Iran by March 7?" has a probability of approximately 28%. Blockchain analysis firm Bubblemaps highlighted that six wallets made precise bets on "The U.S. will strike Iran on February 28," profiting around $1.2 million, raising concerns about potential insider trading.