Deutsche Bank Analyst Predicts UK Interest Rate Cuts May Slow Due to Energy Prices

Deutsche Bank's Sanjay Raja has indicated that if energy prices remain at current levels, the pace of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England may slow. According to Jin10, Raja noted that the anticipated rate cut in March faces uncertainty, with policymakers concerned that rising energy prices could lead to more persistent inflation expectations. The next rate cut to 3.5% might be delayed until the second quarter of this year, with the final cut potentially postponed to the fourth quarter. Raja suggests that if energy prices surge to $100 per barrel, the next rate cut might not occur until the second half of 2026, with the terminal rate potentially rising to 3.5%. However, he also mentioned that if the upward trend in commodity prices reverses, the Bank of England might adhere to Deutsche Bank's baseline expectation of achieving a terminal rate of 3.25% through two rate cuts.