Global Liquidity and Its Impact on Bitcoin and Nasdaq

On March 8, Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal shared insights on global liquidity, highlighting its significant role as a macroeconomic factor. According to BlockBeats, Pal noted that since 2012, global liquidity has shown a 90% correlation with Bitcoin and a 97% correlation with the Nasdaq 100 Index. Currently, global liquidity is increasing by approximately 10% annually, with no signs of slowing down. The GMI Financial Conditions Index typically leads global liquidity by about six months and remains in a state of sustained ease. The U.S. is expected to see further interest rate cuts, which could boost disposable income and increase investment in risk assets. The potential passage of the CLARITY Act is likely to bring new capital inflows, providing a clear regulatory framework for banks and asset management firms eager to adopt this technology. Stablecoins are experiencing rapid growth, with issuance increasing by 50% last year and continuing to accelerate. The U.S. currently has the most crypto-friendly government environment in its history. Additionally, the emergence of AI agents is anticipated to drive exponential growth, creating a vast new market. Meanwhile, the crypto market is experiencing panic, with indicators suggesting it is nearing historically oversold levels. The weekly DeMark indicator is expected to form a solid bottom structure within two weeks. If further pullbacks occur, it could lead to a resonance of daily and weekly signals, potentially resulting in a comprehensive trend reversal. The primary risk factor at present is the duration of high oil prices. The next two weeks are a critical observation period, and Pal believes that the situation will ultimately develop positively.