Expert Predicts GBP Weakening Against EUR Amid Rate Expectations

Francesco Pesole from ING has indicated that the British pound may weaken against the euro due to greater room for downward adjustments in the Bank of England's rate expectations compared to the European Central Bank. According to Jin10, Bank of England officials have been cautious in their language regarding interest rate hikes, and the bank was prepared to cut rates before the outbreak of the Iran war. Additionally, the UK economy is likely to be one of the most severely impacted by energy price shocks. ING believes the market will fully absorb the expectation that the Bank of England will not raise rates further. LSEG data shows that the UK money market currently prices in a cumulative rate hike of 48 basis points by December, while the European Central Bank's corresponding rate hike expectation stands at 62 basis points.