UOB Economists Raise Philippines CPI Forecast Amid Inflation Concerns

UOB economists have revised their inflation forecast for the Philippines, citing higher-than-expected inflation in March and ongoing disruptions due to Middle East conflicts. According to Jin10, economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting noted that base effects and a weak peso could exacerbate price pressures. They now project a 5.5% inflation rate for 2026, up from a previous forecast of 3.0%. Despite these concerns, the central bank is likely to overlook supply-driven shocks and maintain the policy rate at 4.25% in April. Given the economy's ongoing recovery from public works-related scandals and the uncertain duration of Middle East conflicts, UOB expects the Philippine central bank to prioritize growth and employment in the short term.