Futures Demand Drives Bitcoin Price Amidst Declining Spot Demand

Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, stated in a report that the demand for perpetual futures contracts is the sole driver of Bitcoin's price increase, while apparent spot demand continues to shrink. According to ChainCatcher, this pattern historically appears during bear markets and often struggles to sustain upward momentum. Moreno highlighted that the divergence between rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand is one of the clearest on-chain signals indicating that the current price increase is more speculative rather than structural. He noted that this suggests the price rise is primarily driven by leverage rather than new inflows of Bitcoin funds. Moreno further explained that historically, such a structure lacks the foundation to support a sustained price increase. Once futures positions begin to unwind, it typically leads to a price correction. CryptoQuant noted that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures resembles the early stages of the 2022 bear market. Although this does not necessarily mean the same outcome will occur, the current structure does present significant downside risks.