Bank of America Scraps 2025 Rate Cut Forecast — No Fed Cuts Expected Until Second Half of 2027

Bank of America has abandoned its forecast for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026, now projecting that the Fed will hold rates unchanged through the rest of this year and into the second half of 2027. The shift marks a significant reversal for one of Wall Street's most closely watched research teams and adds to growing market consensus that the rate cut cycle has been pushed further out than previously expected.What changedBank of America Global Research had previously forecast two rate cuts in 2026 — one in September and one in October. That view was built on the expectation that Kevin Warsh, expected to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chairman, would steer policymakers toward easing. The bank has now walked that forecast back entirely.In a note to clients, Bank of America economists stated plainly: "We no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year." The reversal was driven by a combination of persistently high inflation, stronger-than-expected job growth, and a more complex macro environment than the bank had anticipated when its previous forecast was made.Three forces pushing rates higher for longerBank of America economists pointed to three overlapping shocks making the Fed's path unusually difficult to predict. Ongoing tensions stemming from the Iran conflict are keeping energy prices elevated and adding geopolitical uncertainty to an already complicated inflation picture. Tariff pressures continue to feed into goods prices, complicating the Fed's ability to declare inflation sustainably under control. And the rapid rise of artificial intelligence is reshaping productivity, labor demand, and investment flows in ways that make traditional economic modeling less reliable as a forecasting tool.Together, the bank said, these forces have made the timing of any future rate adjustment harder to call with confidence — prompting a more conservative baseline that assumes rates stay where they are until the data resolves those uncertainties.The FOMC split: largest disagreement since 1992Adding institutional weight to the hold-for-longer view is the state of disagreement inside the Federal Reserve itself. At the most recent FOMC meeting in April 2026, the committee voted 8-4 on its rate decision — the largest internal split since 1992. When Fed policymakers are this divided, history suggests the path of least resistance is inaction. A deeply split committee is less likely to build the consensus needed to move rates in either direction, effectively creating institutional momentum behind the status quo.Bank of America's economists flagged this dynamic explicitly, noting that the difficulty of reaching consensus on rate adjustments has increased simultaneously with the macro uncertainty — a combination that points toward a prolonged pause rather than a pivot.What it means for marketsThe revision carries meaningful implications across asset classes. Equity valuations built on expectations of cheaper borrowing costs will need to be reassessed. Bond markets may reprice the yield curve if other major banks follow Bank of America's lead and push out their own cut timelines. For crypto, which has benefited from growing risk appetite in recent months, a sustained high-rate environment could dampen the speculative sentiment that has supported Bitcoin and altcoin prices since April.The Fed's next move — whenever it comes — now appears firmly dependent on a sustained shift in inflation and employment data that, on Bank of America's current read, is unlikely to arrive before the second half of 2027.