Bitcoin's Low Volatility Persists Amid Market Uncertainty

According to PANews, Bitcoin continues to experience low volatility, with risk-averse traders suppressing yields, trading volumes, and futures premiums. K33 Research suggests this situation is unlikely to last long. Analyst Vetle Lunde highlights that despite the pro-cryptocurrency stance of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration being a long-term positive factor, current market uncertainty remains. Traders are advised to exercise caution until a clear direction emerges. Data from K33 Research indicates that Bitcoin's volatility remains low, with a slight weekly decline of 2%. Risk-averse traders have driven yields, volatility, and trading volumes to their lowest levels in months. Lunde notes that while the Trump administration's pro-cryptocurrency policies are beneficial in the long run, short-term uncertainty is dampening market activity. In a report released on Tuesday, Lunde stated, "Bitcoin's metrics, including trading volume, yields, options premiums, and ETF fund flows, have returned to levels not seen since before the election. In this subdued state, volatility has reached its lowest point in months." He emphasized that 37% of the top 100 U.S. companies have a monthly volatility higher than Bitcoin, a level not seen since October 2023. However, he urged traders to be prepared for sudden market shifts, as low volatility periods typically do not last long. Lunde added, "Overall risk aversion indicates traders are ready for downward volatility, and the current moderate leverage levels suggest a reduced threat of cascading liquidations." Analysis of CME Bitcoin futures by Lunde shows that recent futures premiums have fallen below 5%, a rare occurrence. Reviewing data from 2021 to 2025, low premiums often coincide with weak market performance, possibly influenced by the prolonged bear market of 2022. In futures trading, the basis refers to the price difference between futures and spot prices of the same asset. A premium occurs when futures prices exceed spot prices, indicating bullish sentiment, while a discount suggests a bearish trend. Lunde reiterated that Bitcoin tends to perform best when the basis is strong and advised the market to remain cautious amid current uncertainties.