Shifting Treasury and Gold Trends Signal a Favorable Macro Backdrop for BitcoinBitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a major price breakout as global financial trends increasingly mirror conditions seen during the 2020–2021 bull run, analysts suggest.Recent data highlights major shifts in global asset allocation, including a historic surge in US Treasury inflows, reduced foreign central bank exposure to Treasurys, and an accelerated accumulation of gold reserves — factors that historically correlate with strong Bitcoin rallies.Central Banks Slash Treasury Holdings, Turn to GoldAccording to the latest data:US Treasury funds saw $19 billion in inflows last week, the highest since March 2023.30-year Treasury yields dropped 30 basis points from April peaks, signaling rising bond demand.Foreign central banks cut their US Treasury holdings to 23% of outstanding US government debt — a 22-year low.Meanwhile, gold’s share of global central bank reserves hit 18%, the highest in 26 years.This shift, fueled partly by ongoing US-China tariff tensions, signals a gradual de-dollarization trend, with central banks seeking alternatives to US debt instruments.Historical Parallels: Bitcoin’s 2020 Bull RunSimilar macroeconomic patterns fueled Bitcoin’s historic rally during the pandemic:In 2020, spikes in US Treasury inflows coincided with Bitcoin’s rise from $9,000 to $60,000.Gold’s share of global reserves increased by 14.5% over 18 months.Investors sought alternative stores of value amid concerns over traditional monetary systems.Today’s bond and gold market dynamics suggest similar conditions are emerging, setting the stage for a potential Bitcoin breakout in 2025.Institutional Demand Dominates Bitcoin’s Current RallyAnalysts from Capital Flows and Bitwise highlight that Bitcoin’s latest price surge, which pushed BTC above $94,000, is largely institution-driven rather than retail-led:Google search interest for “Bitcoin” remains near long-term lows, according to Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley.Corporate treasuries, asset managers, and even sovereign entities are increasingly driving Bitcoin demand.Previous cycles heavily correlated Bitcoin price movements with retail search volume; this shift suggests a maturing market dynamic.Data from SEMrush shows that in earlier cycles, Bitcoin search volumes had a 91% correlation with price movements, a trend that appears to have diverged in 2025.Risks Remain: Impact of a Potential RecessionDespite bullish signals, some caution remains:A global recession could derail Bitcoin’s rally if investors shift toward cash and traditional safe havens like US Treasurys instead of riskier assets.Liquidity conditions and investor sentiment in coming quarters will be critical for sustaining Bitcoin’s upward momentum.Nonetheless, the combination of easing Treasury yields, central bank gold accumulation, and increasing institutional adoption presents a compelling macro backdrop for Bitcoin’s next potential move toward new all-time highs, according to Cointelegraph.
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