Key Takeaways:ETH reclaims $3,500 and targets $3,700 amid strong buying pressure.Weekly price up 20%; monthly gains exceed 41%.Record ETF inflows and rising on-chain activity signal growing institutional interest.Futures-driven momentum contrasts with flat spot volumes, raising sustainability concerns.$4,000 remains the key psychological target, but near-term consolidation is likely.Ethereum (ETH) has surged 20% over the past week, climbing above the key $3,500 resistance level and approaching the $3,700 supply zone. However, the rally is beginning to show signs of exhaustion as ETH faces significant resistance and futures activity outpaces spot buying.On the technical side, ETH’s move above $3,500 signals renewed bullish momentum, fueled by growing market confidence and strong ETF inflows. According to on-chain data, a potential golden cross is forming, with the 100-day moving average nearing a crossover above the 200-day MA—typically seen as a long-term bullish signal.Still, ETH now trades in a narrow range between $3,500 and $3,800, with multiple indicators pointing toward consolidation. The $3,700–$3,800 region represents a historically strong supply zone. If bulls fail to break through, the price could retrace toward $3,500, which may now act as short-term support.Futures vs. Spot: Diverging SignalsA deeper look into Ethereum’s Futures Volume Bubble Map reveals heavy leveraged positioning, with $267 million in liquidations in the last 24 hours. Futures open interest has surged, signaling aggressive speculative trading. Meanwhile, the Spot Volume Bubble Map shows flat activity, highlighting a lack of confirmation from retail or long-term holders.This divergence raises questions about the rally’s sustainability: without spot market participation, futures-led gains can be more volatile and prone to corrections.Institutional Inflows and On-Chain MomentumFueling the bullish narrative, Ethereum ETFs have attracted a record $7.49 billion in inflows, and on-chain volume has jumped 280% in the last two weeks. Analysts believe this institutional momentum is critical for Ethereum’s next leg up.However, short-term resistance remains formidable. While some analysts eye the $4,000 psychological level as the next major target, most expect a consolidation phase to play out before any decisive breakout.Bullish Long-Term, Cautious Near-TermEthereum is up more than 41% over the past month, and macro tailwinds continue to favor risk assets. But as speculative activity overheats, a period of sideways trading or mild pullback is increasingly likely.Unless spot buyers step in to confirm the rally and absorb sell pressure, ETH could remain range-bound between $3,500 and $3,800. A clean breakout above $4,000 would require both sustained ETF inflows and stronger spot demand.
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