Key Takeaways:Bitcoin consolidates below $120K as traders eye a potential pullback to $114KAltcoins outperform as BTC dominance sees sharpest weekly drop in 4 yearsETH ETP inflows hit $2.12B, with $6.2B total for 2025, sparking altseason momentumFed Chair Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday amid pressure and rate-cut speculationExchange BTC reserves rise, signaling increased whale selling and potential correction1. Bitcoin in “Wait and See” Mode Below $120KBitcoin (BTC) is consolidating after hitting an all-time high of $123,000 last week, retreating to around $119,000 as the market enters the final full week of July. Analysts note a key CME gap at $114,000 that could be filled if downside liquidity is triggered.According to Daan Crypto Trades and CrypNuevo, BTC is showing signs of buyer exhaustion with long upper wicks and clustered liquidation levels around $115.3K–$114K, which could act as magnet zones during a correction.2. Altseason Momentum Builds as BTC Dominance CollapsesAltcoins have begun to outpace Bitcoin, marking what many traders now call the official start of “altseason.”Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL) have all posted significant gains.BTC dominance has dropped from 66% to near 60%, its steepest decline in 4 years, according to TradingView data.Traders like Rekt Capital and Henrik Zeberg say money is flowing into alts amid Bitcoin’s consolidation, while Michaël van de Poppe cautions a short-term correction may precede further upside.3. ETH ETPs Set New Records as Institutional Demand SoarsAccording to CoinShares, crypto investment products saw a record $4.4 billion in inflows last week, with Ethereum ETPs leading the charge:$2.12B ETH inflows last week alone—double the previous record$6.2B total ETH inflows for 2025, now surpassing all of 2024ETH climbed past $3,500, its highest since JanuaryJames Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, emphasized that 23% of Ethereum’s AUM has come in over the past 13 weeks, showing rising institutional confidence in ETH as a core blockchain asset.4. Powell to Speak Amid Political Heat and Rate-Cut UncertaintyWhile the Fed enters a pre-FOMC quiet period, Chair Jerome Powell will deliver opening remarks Tuesday at a regulatory conference in Washington, D.C.Powell faces mounting political pressure from President Trump, including calls for his resignationMarket expectations for a July rate cut remain low (under 5%, according to CME FedWatch)September odds are split between no cut and a 25-bps cut, clouded by strong inflation dataThe speech may offer indirect clues about the Fed’s future stance, especially as crypto markets remain sensitive to monetary policy direction.5. Exchange BTC Reserves and Whale Inflows Signal Profit-TakingOn-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests BTC may be entering a distribution phase:Exchange BTC reserves are at their highest since June 25Whale wallet inflows surged from $28B to $45B (July 14–18)While still below the $75B inflow level seen at prior tops, analysts warn the trend could foreshadow a pullback or broader correctionThis on-chain activity supports the idea that profit-taking is underway, even as altcoins absorb fresh capital.With Bitcoin cooling, Ethereum leading ETP inflows, and altcoins stealing market share, the current macro environment supports a bullish but cautious outlook. Key risks include CME gap-driven pullbacks, whale profit-taking, and macro uncertainty from Powell's speech and Fed policy delays.Altseason may be here, but traders are watching closely for volatility spikes and retracements before the next leg up.
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