Goldman Sachs Adjusts U.S. Economic Forecast Amid Tariff Changes

According to PANews, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. economist, David Mericle, anticipates an increase in the base 'reciprocal' tariff rate from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and key minerals reaching 50%. This move is expected to intensify inflationary pressures and hinder economic growth. In response to these new tariff assumptions and their impact on imports, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth. The firm has adjusted its core inflation forecast for 2025 from 3.4% to 3.3%, while increasing the 2026 forecast from 2.6% to 2.7%, and the 2027 forecast from 2.0% to 2.4%. Mericle noted that tariffs are projected to cumulatively raise core prices by 1.7% over the next two to three years. Additionally, he stated that tariffs will reduce GDP growth by one percentage point this year, 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Consequently, Goldman Sachs has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%.