Macro Outlook: Fed Speeches and U.S. Core PCE Data in Focus as Markets Bet on September Rate Cut

Key Takeaways:Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech triggered the biggest cross-market rally since April.U.S. core PCE data for July and several Fed officials’ speeches this week will guide expectations.Traders are nearly fully pricing in a rate cut in September, but the pace of easing remains uncertain.Dollar index faces downward pressure, while risk assets — stocks, bonds, crypto, and gold — are rallying.Powell Sets the Tone With Dovish ShiftAccording to PANews, Wall Street traders have been piling into stocks and bonds on expectations the Federal Reserve will soon begin its long-awaited rate cut cycle. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium sparked the strongest cross-asset rally since April.Ethereum surged to a nearly four-year high.Gold climbed 1%.U.S. equities saw renewed inflows, while Treasury yields fell.Markets are now looking for confirmation from upcoming Fed communications and economic data.Key Events to Watch This WeekTuesday, Aug. 26:Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (2026 FOMC voter) and New York Fed President John Williams (permanent FOMC voter) speak at Banco de Mexico’s 100th anniversary.U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Aug).Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug).Thursday, Aug. 28:Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) speech.U.S. Q2 GDP revision (annualized).Friday, Aug. 29:Fed Governor Christopher Waller speech on monetary policy.U.S. core PCE price index (July) (annual & monthly).U.S. personal spending (July).Dollar Outlook and Policy Path AheadThe U.S. dollar index (DXY) is expected to remain under pressure as traders price in a September rate cut. Unless upcoming labor market data shifts the outlook, the dollar could weaken further, especially against currencies with more hawkish central banks.However, analysts caution that while a September cut looks almost certain, the trajectory of further easing is less clear. The Fed may move more cautiously if inflation or jobs data surprises.Investors are entering the week betting heavily on a Fed rate cut next month, but the core PCE data on Friday and speeches from key Fed officials will determine how aggressive — or cautious — the central bank will be in its policy pivot.