Bitcoin News: El Salvador’s Bukele Sparks Prediction Market Frenzy on $1B Bitcoin Holdings

Key TakeawaysPresident Nayib Bukele highlighted prediction markets betting on El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings reaching $1B by late 2025.Kalshi odds surged from 20% to 38% for a November milestone before retracing to 27%.Rival Polymarket launched a similar bet, showing 43% odds for December 2025.El Salvador currently holds over $700M in BTC, making the $1B mark plausible if prices climb further.Bukele Draws Attention to Bitcoin Betting MarketsEl Salvador President Nayib Bukele reignited global attention on his nation’s Bitcoin experiment by pointing to growing activity on prediction platforms that wager on the country’s BTC holdings surpassing $1 billion by 2025. On Wednesday, Bukele posted on X about Kalshi’s prediction market, where traders bet on whether El Salvador’s Bitcoin stash would exceed $1 billion by late 2025.“I could do the funniest thing right now,” Bukele quipped, as Kalshi odds for hitting $1B before November jumped from 20% to 38%.Kalshi and Polymarket Compete on $1B BetKalshi has been tracking the odds since mid-August, with markets split between “before November 2025” and “before December 2025.”Before November 2025: surged to 38% before easing back to 27%.Before December 2025: climbed to around 35%.Shortly after Bukele’s post, rival prediction platform Polymarket introduced a nearly identical market. The odds there stood at 43% for December 2025, higher than Kalshi’s comparable bet.“New Polymarket: Will El Salvador hold $1 billion of Bitcoin by…?” the platform posted on X, directly responding to Bukele’s tweet.El Salvador’s Bitcoin Holdings Near MilestoneEl Salvador, the world’s first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, currently holds more than $700 million in BTC (depending on market prices).At current prices near $112,000, El Salvador’s holdings are steadily appreciating, making the $1B milestone feasible within months if Bitcoin rallies further.The renewed prediction market activity highlights growing global interest in El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment, often viewed as a bellwether for sovereign crypto adoption.Outlook: All Eyes on $1B MarkWith both Kalshi and Polymarket fueling speculation, El Salvador’s Bitcoin bet continues to attract worldwide attention.If Bitcoin maintains its uptrend, Bukele could oversee one of the most profitable sovereign investments in history, with prediction markets suggesting the $1B threshold could arrive before year-end 2025.