Key Takeaways:Bitcoin rebounds to $116,000, reclaiming key technical levels.FOMC rate cut expectations drive optimism across markets.AI model predicts a move toward $125,000 before month-end.Short-term holders return to profit as Uptober turns green.Traders still divided over whether the bull market is back.Bitcoin Rebounds Above $114,000 Ahead of FOMC WeekBitcoin (BTC) started the final week of October with a sharp rebound, climbing to $114,500 by the weekly close and reclaiming the 21-week EMA, a critical technical level for sustaining upward momentum.Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC has a chance to flip its September highs into new monthly support, noting that the broader market structure remains within a long-term consolidation range.However, some traders remain skeptical. Analyst Roman warned that low trading volume and bearish RSI divergences may indicate an upcoming head-and-shoulders reversal if BTC falls below $109,000.Markets Eye Fed Decision and US-China Trade DevelopmentsThis week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is the key macro event, with markets pricing in a 95% probability of a 0.25% rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Last week’s lower-than-expected CPI data fueled optimism that rate cuts will continue, with risk assets rallying across the board. Meanwhile, reports of an imminent US-China trade deal boosted global sentiment — President Donald Trump is expected to meet China’s Xi Jinping on Thursday to finalize terms.The S&P 500 has added $3 trillion in value since the October 10 sell-off triggered by tariff fears, marking one of the strongest recoveries in years.AI Models Predict BTC Rally Toward $125,000Network economist Timothy Peterson shared that Bitcoin’s price trends remain heavily influenced by interest rate policy, with quantitative easing (QE) cycles historically favoring upside momentum.His AI-driven forecast now points to $125,000 as a potential short-term target, with Metcalfe’s Law metrics confirming steady network growth.“There is no bubble — all dips are temporary,” Peterson noted, adding that Bitcoin’s long-term valuation remains intact.‘Uptober’ Turns Green — Bitcoin on Track for Record Monthly CloseAfter a volatile start to October, Bitcoin is now 1% above its monthly open, marking a tentative win for “Uptober.” At around $115,000, BTC is on track for its highest monthly close ever, according to CoinGlass data.While October’s returns are still modest compared to the 20% historical average since 2013, traders are already shifting focus to a potential “Growvember” rally.Market sentiment has improved notably, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rising to “neutral” territory after two weeks in “fear.”Short-Term Holders Return to ProfitOn-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that short-term holders (STHs) — those who bought within the last six months — are once again in profit, with the Short-Term Holder Profit Ratio (SOPR) climbing above 1.0.Roughly 83.6% of total supply is now in profit, signaling renewed confidence among holders and suggesting that investors are accumulating rather than selling.Historically, market corrections occur when profit supply exceeds 95%, implying there’s still room for further upside before reaching overextension.
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