Key TakeawaysSolana (SOL) fell 3.47% in the past 24 hours to $154.76, underperforming the broader crypto market (-2.03%)Despite $18M in daily ETF inflows and $351M total since launch, price action remains weakPositive market sentiment from impending end of U.S. government shutdown fails to materialize in crypto assetsSOL Price Movements TodaySolana (SOL) extended its downward slide with market data showing bearish momentum across multiple technical indicators. According to TradingView, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 37.86, reflecting subdued buying pressure, while Momentum (10) is –9.81, suggesting continued weakness.All major moving averages, from the 10-day EMA (161.87) to the 200-day SMA (180.44), remain above the current price, reinforcing the short-term downward bias. The MACD Level (12, 26) at –10.97 further signals deteriorating momentum and a loss of short-term trend strength. Bearish Technical Setup DeepensSOL’s breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($146.75–$211.11 range) indicates that the asset remains under strong selling pressure. With RSI below 40 and MACD histogram in negative territory, sellers are likely targeting the $129–$142 zone next.The $150–$152 cluster serves as immediate support, while $162 now acts as a resistance pivot. A decisive daily close above $162 could invalidate the bearish structure, but a move below $150 risks triggering stop-loss cascades.In the oscillator data, most indicators including the Stochastic %K (16.78), CCI (-83.30), and Williams %R (-77.70), show a neutral but weak posture, consistent with oversold market conditions. ETF Inflows Fail to Lift PriceDespite the technical weakness, institutional interest in Solana remains robust. SOL ETFs recorded $368.5M in net inflows since late October, with 11 consecutive days of accumulation. The latest day alone saw $18M in new inflows, even as the price fell more than 20% since October 28.This divergence suggests that ETF buyers are positioning long-term, while retail traders continue to take profits. The launch of Solana ETF options trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) marks a milestone for the ecosystem, offering institutional-grade tools for yield enhancement and risk management.According to Bitwise President Teddy Fusaro, these developments reflect “institutional tools for price discovery and scalability,” underscoring growing institutional confidence in Solana as a financial asset. Macro and Sentiment HeadwindsThe broader crypto market remains in risk-off mode, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 25 (Extreme Fear). Bitcoin’s decline of over 2% and $278M in BTC ETF outflows have helped to drag altcoins lower, with SOL’s 30-day BTC correlation climbing to 0.94. Source: TradingEconomicsAltcoin season indicators also remain weak, with a reading of 29 and Bitcoin dominance at 59.1%, suggesting traders are rotating into larger-cap assets amid uncertainty. Meanwhile, Solana’s DeFi user base has dropped 50% since early June, and its stablecoin market cap shrank by $2.5B, further dampening network activity and confidence. Outlook: Can SOL Hold $150?The $150–$155 zone is critical in the near term. A break below this support could expose $126, followed by $110, where stronger demand historically emerged. Conversely, reclaiming the 20-day EMA (170.37) would indicate a shift in momentum and potentially target the 50-day SMA (192.33).Analysts note that futures open interest has jumped 36.7% in 24 hours, suggesting traders are positioning for heightened volatility. With ETF options now active and institutional exposure rising, Solana may be setting up for a long-term base despite near-term turbulence.
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