Traders Adjust Expectations for December Fed Meeting Amid Data Delay

According to Odaily, traders are adjusting their expectations for the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting following the U.S. Labor Department's announcement that it will not release the October employment report. The confirmation of insufficient data to publish the report led to a sell-off in the federal funds futures market. Traders have now reduced their expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the December 10 meeting. They anticipate the Fed will maintain the benchmark interest rate between 3.75% and 4%. The swaps market, which is linked to the Fed's policy rate, is currently pricing in only a 6 basis point cut for the December meeting, with a cumulative reduction of just 19 basis points by January. Prior to Wednesday, the swaps market had priced in an 11 basis point cut, suggesting a roughly even chance of a rate cut by the Fed within three weeks. Leah Traub, a portfolio manager at Lord Abbet, commented, "We have long known there would be no October unemployment data, but the November data will not be available until after the Fed meeting, which should be disappointing for the market. Given the Federal Open Market Committee's divisions, this reduces the likelihood of a rate cut."