Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $782 million in net outflows during Christmas week, extending a six-day withdrawal streak as investors reduced exposure amid seasonal positioning and thinner holiday liquidity.Market participants say the selling reflects calendar-driven adjustments rather than a deterioration in long-term institutional demand, with expectations that flows could stabilize as desks reopen in early January.Bitcoin ETF Outflows Accelerate During Holiday TradingAccording to data from SoSoValue, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw sustained withdrawals throughout the Christmas period, with the heaviest single-day outflow occurring on Friday, when investors pulled $276 million from the products.BlackRock’s IBIT led the day’s redemptions with nearly $193 million in outflows, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC at approximately $74 million. Grayscale’s GBTC also continued to experience modest but persistent redemptions.By the end of the week, total net assets across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs declined to roughly $113.5 billion, down from peaks above $120 billion earlier in December — even as Bitcoin prices remained relatively stable near the $87,000 level.Longest ETF Withdrawal Streak Since Early AutumnFriday marked the sixth consecutive trading day of net outflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs, making it the longest sustained withdrawal streak since early autumn.Over this six-day period, cumulative outflows exceeded $1.1 billion, highlighting a clear pause in institutional allocations following months of strong inflows earlier in the year.Despite the magnitude of withdrawals, analysts caution against interpreting the data as a structural shift away from Bitcoin exposure.Analysts Cite ‘Holiday Positioning,’ Not Structural WeaknessVincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research, said the timing of the outflows aligns with typical holiday positioning and reduced market participation, rather than waning conviction in Bitcoin as an asset class.“ETF outflows during the Christmas period are not unusual,” Liu said. “As desks return in early January, institutional flows typically re-engage and normalize.”Liu added that macro conditions could become more supportive in the months ahead, particularly if monetary policy expectations continue to shift toward easing.Macro Outlook Could Support ETF Demand in 2026Looking forward, Liu noted that interest-rate markets are already pricing in 75 to 100 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could provide a more favorable backdrop for risk assets — including Bitcoin.“Rates markets are already pricing easing momentum,” he said. “At the same time, bank-led crypto infrastructure continues to scale, reducing friction for large allocators entering the market.”Lower rates and improving institutional rails have historically supported renewed capital inflows into regulated crypto products, especially ETFs.Glassnode Flags Cooling Institutional ParticipationStill, some on-chain indicators point to a broader cooling phase. In a recent report, Glassnode said Bitcoin and Ether ETFs have entered a sustained outflow regime, with the 30-day moving average of net flows remaining negative since early November.Because ETFs are widely viewed as a proxy for institutional sentiment, the extended period of outflows suggests large allocators are reassessing exposure amid tighter liquidity conditions and heightened macro uncertainty.That said, analysts emphasize that ETF flow cycles often lag price stabilization, meaning capital could return once volatility subsides and directional conviction improves.While $782 million in Christmas-week outflows underscores near-term caution among institutional investors, market participants largely view the move as seasonal and tactical, not a breakdown in long-term demand.As liquidity returns in January and macro clarity improves, spot Bitcoin ETF flows may stabilize — or even reverse — particularly if expectations for Federal Reserve easing and institutional adoption remain intact.
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