OTC Weekly Trading Insights (12/05/2024)
Top Interest of the WeekGifto ($GFT) experienced significant price fluctuations last week, with its value soaring threefold from $0.07 to $0.21, only to plummet by 99% following the delisting deadline on December 2. This volatility led to a substantial increase in trading activity for the token on Convert, resulting in a trading volume that was 25 times higher than usual.IOTA ($IOTA), a prominent player in the DePin sector, saw its price double last week, coinciding with a governance vote to upgrade the IOTA L1 Mainnet to the Rebased protocol. By supporting this proposal, token holders are facilitating the transition, which is already active on the IOTA Rebased Testnet. The upgrade promises major enhancements, including move-based smart contracts, a delegated proof-of-stake consensus, and the Mysticeti protocol for scalability, enabling over 50,000 transactions per second with sub-second finality. Additional improvements include lower transaction fees, adaptive fee burn, sponsored transactions, staking rewards, and a target annual inflation rate of 6-7%. This excitement among investors contributed to the price surge.Ripple ($XRP) saw its value quadruple following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. This surge was largely fueled by optimism regarding the potential easing of cryptocurrency regulations over the next four years. With Trump appointing crypto advocate Paul Atkins as the new chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the current SEC chair Gary Gensler set to step down on January 20, 2025, investors are hopeful that the SEC will soon dismiss the lawsuit against Ripple after Atkins assumes office. Furthermore, Ripple announced the launch of a US-dollar stablecoin on its network, which is expected to stimulate increased on-chain activity. Amidst this bullish sentiment, XRP's market capitalization briefly surpassed that of Solana and USDT, positioning it as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.Overall MarketThe above chart is the BTC daily K-line chart.Bitcoin ($BTC) has successfully crossed the significant $100,000 mark during the Asian trading session, marking a historic milestone in the cryptocurrency realm. When Bitcoin was first introduced, few could have envisioned reaching this price level. Now that this landmark has been achieved, it is set for further expansion, attracting more capital and expertise within the Web3 space.The rise above the $100,000 threshold was bolstered by significant capital inflows into the ETF market following November 5, along with MicroStrategy's continued Bitcoin accumulation, increasing demand for Bitcoin on the market. Furthermore, many publicly traded companies are now adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, indicating a trend of mainstream adoption that is likely to create positive momentum for the cryptocurrency sector and encourage further developments.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of another interest rate cut during the December meeting at the DealBook Summit today. He also shared his views on Bitcoin, gold, and the US dollar, noting that Bitcoin's main competitor is gold rather than the US dollar. This statement marks a notable shift in how Bitcoin is viewed as an asset class within traditional finance. As Bitcoin gains recognition as a reliable store of value similar to gold, we expect a rapid increase in its market capitalization and a significant reduction in price volatility over the next decade.However, we advise traders to exercise caution, as the market currently shows signs of greed, with a fear-and-greed index reading of 78. A pullback may be anticipated as the market continues to rise. Effective risk management is crucial for traders navigating this environment, and it is important to consistently evaluate one's risk tolerance in this market.Options MarketThe above is the 25-delta skew table for BTC and ETH options.Following Bitcoin's price surpassing the $100,000 mark, the short-term sentiment indicates strong bullish momentum, as evidenced by the 25-delta risk reversal reflecting an 8.27 premium on call options compared to put options. This risk reversal premium remains above 5 for longer-dated options, indicating that the market maintains a positive outlook on Bitcoin's price over the coming months.In contrast, Ethereum is also displaying bullish indicators in the 180-day expiry options, with a 7.08 premium on calls over puts. The 25-delta risk reversal premiums for shorter-dated options are above 4, suggesting that options traders are increasingly optimistic about Ethereum's performance in the long term.This trend in the options market aligns with our analysis that Bitcoin is likely to spearhead the upward movement, followed by Ethereum as capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other altcoins. The data indicates that the market is projecting a six-month phase where Bitcoin will lead the price increase before funds are redirected into altcoins, led by Ethereum.It is important to note that the 25-delta skew table reflects the current market sentiment, and we will need to keep an eye on any changes to better understand the market dynamics, especially as the current focus remains on Bitcoin following its achievement of the $100,000 milestone.Macro at a glance Last Thursday (24-11-28)German CPI is expected to experience a monthly decline of 0.2% in November, a decrease from the 0.4% growth observed in October. The annual growth rate is anticipated to be 2.2%, which is marginally below the predicted rate of 2.3%.Last Friday (24-11-29)The unemployment rate in Germany held steady at 6.1% in November, unchanged from the previous month. The Eurozone's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show an annual growth rate of 2.3%, an increase from October's 2.0%. Meanwhile, the Core CPI is anticipated to remain at 2.7%, slightly below the predicted 2.8%. In the United States, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) registered at 40.2 for November, falling short of the expected 44.9 and indicating ongoing contraction. China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, up from 50.1 in October, suggesting signs of economic recovery in the country.On Monday (24-12-02)The unemployment rate in the Eurozone held steady at 6.3% in October, unchanged from September. In November, both the S&P Global US manufacturing PMI and the ISM manufacturing PMI showed improved readings, registering at 49.7 and 48.4, respectively.On Tuesday (24-12-03)US JOLTS job openings rose to 7.744 million, an increase from the revised figure of 7.372 million in September.On Wednesday (24-12-04)US ADP nonfarm employment change recorded an increase of only 146,000 in November, falling short of the anticipated 166,000, while the figure for October was revised down to 184,000.During the DealBook Summit on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell discussed the perception of Bitcoin, stating that it resembles gold more than the U.S. dollar. This comparison indicates a shift in the traditional finance sector's view, recognizing Bitcoin as a legitimate asset rather than a Ponzi scheme. Following Powell's remarks, Bitcoin's price briefly surged past $99,000, although the gains were quickly lost.Convert Portal Volume ChangeThe above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuated between $94,000 and $99,000, while Ethereum (ETH) and various altcoins demonstrated robust market interest. ETH approached the $3,900 mark, with significant bidding activity observed among altcoins within the Ethereum ecosystem, including Curve ($CRV) and Uniswap ($UNI) in the decentralized exchange space, as well as Aave ($AAVE) and Compound ($COMP) in the on-chain lending and borrowing sector.In the Monitoring sector, trading volume surged by 60.4%, primarily due to the heightened activity surrounding Gifto ($GFT). The token faced delisting on December 2, which resulted in substantial price fluctuations leading up to the deadline.The AI sector recorded a remarkable 35.5% increase in trading volume, largely fueled by growing interest in the AI meme coin, Act I The AI Prophecy ($ACT), alongside Worldcoin ($WLD).The Infrastructure sector saw a significant 25.3% rise in trading activity, with Chainlink ($LINK) playing a key role in this volume increase due to strong market demand.Why trade OTC? Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 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