Indonesia's Trade Surplus Faces Risks Amid Slowing Growth and Trade Tensions

Indonesia's trade surplus outlook is increasingly at risk due to slowing economic growth and escalating trade tensions, according to economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen from UOB. They suggest that the demand, which was prematurely exhausted last year, may gradually diminish by the beginning of 2026. According to Jin10, while the comprehensive economic partnership agreement with the European Union offers some diversification support, broader trade partnerships and further downstream industrialization are crucial for maintaining the surplus momentum. UOB forecasts that Indonesia's trade surplus will narrow from $41 billion in 2025 to approximately $35 billion this year, as export growth slows and capital goods imports continue.