ADP Job Growth Seen Slowing Sharply, Likely to Undershoot January Non-Farm Payrolls

Independent macroeconomic research firm Continuum Economics expects U.S. private-sector job growth to slow notably in January, with ADP employment gains projected to come in well below official non-farm payroll figures.Dave Sloan, Senior Economist for North America at Continuum Economics, said January ADP employment is expected to rise by 30,000, down from 41,000 in December. In contrast, overall U.S. non-farm payrolls are forecast to grow by 85,000, implying a widening gap between the two indicators.Over the past six months, ADP data has averaged 22,000 fewer jobs than non-farm payrolls. While this discrepancy narrowed in September and November, Sloan expects the gap to expand to around 50,000 in January.The divergence is largely attributed to sector composition. January non-farm payrolls are expected to rebound from recent weakness in the retail sector, which tends to have less influence on ADP data. Meanwhile, ADP figures are likely to show modest improvement in goods-producing industries, particularly construction, alongside a slowdown in service-sector hiring.Sloan noted that the underperformance of ADP relative to non-farm payrolls has been most pronounced in services, with education and healthcare showing the largest discrepancies.