AllianceDAO Co-Founder: Bitcoin Bear Market Has No “Scapegoat,” Price Driven by Psychology

AllianceDAO co-founder AllianceDAO co-founder qw said the ongoing Bitcoin downturn should not be attributed to a single external trigger, arguing that market psychology — not conspiracy theories or isolated events — is the primary driver of price action.In a recent social media post, qw said the crypto market has spent the past few months searching for “scapegoats” to explain Bitcoin’s weakness. Narratives circulating online have blamed everything from alleged trading strategies at Jane Street, to quantum computing risks, to broader sell-offs in the technology sector.However, qw dismissed these explanations as oversimplified.Bitcoin Not Anchored to Cash FlowAccording to qw, Bitcoin differs fundamentally from traditional assets because it is not anchored to corporate earnings, dividends, or discounted cash flows. Instead, its valuation is largely shaped by:Market sentimentLiquidity cyclesTechnical trading patternsShifts in investor psychologyHe argued that Bitcoin’s volatility reflects changing risk appetite rather than a single event or institution exerting structural control over the market.Psychology Over External BlameThe remarks come amid heightened speculation about the causes behind Bitcoin’s extended correction phase. Social media debates have frequently pointed to specific firms, macro developments, or emerging technologies as catalysts.qw suggested that such narratives often emerge during downturns as investors seek simple explanations for complex market dynamics.In his view, Bitcoin’s price movements are better understood as part of broader cyclical behavior in speculative markets — where crowd sentiment, leverage, and positioning amplify moves in both directions.