Goldman Sachs: Brent Crude Could Hit $100 if Strait of Hormuz Disruption Lasts 5 Weeks

Goldman Sachs warns that prolonged supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude oil prices to $100 per barrel, as geopolitical tensions continue to drive a risk premium in global energy markets.The bank has already raised its near-term oil price forecasts amid rising uncertainty in the Middle East.Goldman Sachs Raises Q2 Oil Price ForecastAnalysts at Goldman Sachs revised their second-quarter oil outlook upward, citing sustained geopolitical risks.Updated forecasts include:Brent crude: Raised from $66 to $76 per barrelWTI crude: Raised from $62 to $71 per barrelThe revision reflects expectations that geopolitical tensions will continue to support oil prices through a heightened risk premium.Hormuz Disruption Could Send Oil to $100Goldman Sachs noted that if supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist for roughly five weeks, Brent crude could surge significantly.In that scenario:Brent crude could climb to $100 per barrelGlobal oil supply would face prolonged uncertaintyEnergy markets could tighten rapidlyThe Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, handling a significant share of global crude exports.OECD Inventories Could Be Rapidly DepletedThe bank also outlined a scenario involving a temporary collapse in exports followed by a gradual recovery.Under this situation:OECD crude inventories could decline rapidlyMiddle East production losses could reach around 200 million barrelsSuch a supply shock would tighten global oil balances and reinforce upward pressure on crude prices.Geopolitical Risk Remains Key Market DriverGoldman Sachs emphasized that ongoing geopolitical instability may continue to influence oil markets in the near term.Even without a full supply disruption, persistent tensions could maintain a risk premium in energy prices, contributing to higher average oil prices through the second quarter.For energy markets and global inflation expectations, developments around the Strait of Hormuz will remain a key factor to watch in the coming weeks.