US Recession Odds Surge on Prediction Markets: Here’s What’s Driving It

The probability of a US recession in 2026 is rising on prediction markets as oil prices climb and geopolitical tensions intensify. The ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict has rattled global markets, with risk assets, from stocks to cryptocurrencies, facing mounting pressure as investors turn increasingly defensive. This has raised concerns about whether the US economy can absorb the impact without contracting. Prediction Markets Signal Growing US Recession Concerns in 2026 On Polymarket, traders are pricing the probability of a US recession by the end of 2026 at approximately 40% source: https://beincrypto.com/us-recession-prediction-market-odds-2026/