European Central Bank Rate Hike Unlikely to Impact Euro Amid Energy Price Surge

Francesco Pesole from ING suggests that while the market may dismiss the possibility of a European Central Bank rate hike, this does not necessarily weaken the euro. According to Jin10, LSEG data indicates that due to the Iranian conflict driving up energy prices, the market has now priced in a 25 basis point rate hike by the end of the year, contrary to previous expectations of unchanged rates. Pesole notes that despite the low likelihood of a rate hike, the ECB's policy expectations have a limited impact on the euro, with oil prices remaining the primary driver. The Wall Street Journal reports that the International Energy Agency is planning the largest oil reserve release in history, which may keep the EUR/USD above 1.60 in the short term.