RBC Predicts Fed to Hold Rates Steady Amid Rising Risks

The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) has indicated that the risks to the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and maintaining price stability have increased. According to Jin10, despite these rising risks, RBC still anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in 2026. The bank's report suggests that recent energy price shocks are not sufficient to prompt rate hikes but may lead the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach. RBC Capital Markets expresses growing concern over the downside risks to economic growth if energy price shocks persist. The bank believes the Federal Reserve shares this perspective. Looking ahead to 2027, RBC forecasts three 25-basis-point "normalization" rate cuts as inflation more sustainably returns to target levels.