PRECIOUS METALS | Liquidity Squeeze Impacts Gold Prices, Huatai Securities Reports

According to Jin10, Huatai Securities has released a report indicating that the recent decline in gold prices is primarily due to a liquidity squeeze. Investors are opting to hold cash in the face of risk, leading to the selling of assets like gold. The report highlights that escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are putting cash flow pressure on Gulf countries, which may result in short-term pressure on gold as investors shift from speculative to real assets. Additionally, concerns over stagflation and diminishing expectations of interest rate cuts are intensifying volatility in risk assets, triggering a liquidity squeeze. The current macroeconomic scenario is reminiscent of the 1973-1975 oil crisis, during which gold prices experienced two declines and two rises. The main cause of the price drops was liquidity squeezes driven by risk aversion and economic recession, while stagflation and liquidity easing catalyzed two rounds of price increases. The long-term logic for reallocating gold as an asset remains solid, and it is crucial to manage investment timing amid risk events.