CLARITY Act Seen at 13% Odds of Becoming Law in 2026 on Polymarket

Polymarket shows a 13% implied probability that the CLARITY Act will pass in 2026 and become law, with related contracts trading about $11.5 million. According to Odaily, that is down sharply from 82% in February. The U.S. Senate plans to hold a procedural vote on the bill on September 15. The motion to end debate was introduced by Majority Leader John Thune and typically requires 60 votes. Kalshi puts the probability of a Senate vote by October 1 at 91%, with related market trading volume above $1.25 million. The CLARITY Act would establish a federal regulatory framework for crypto markets, giving the Commodity Futures Trading Commission exclusive oversight of spot digital commodities markets and assigning the Securities and Exchange Commission responsibility for some securities issuance and exchange activities. The bill still faces disagreements over conflicts of interest involving officials and the crypto industry, stablecoin yields, and protections for decentralized finance and non-custodial software developers.