Bitcoin Market Simulation Predicts Bullish Trend For Late 2025

According to PANews, despite the ongoing 'extreme fear' indicated by the cryptocurrency fear and greed index on March 10, a Bitcoin market simulation forecasts a bullish trend for the latter half of 2025. Cryptocurrency researcher Mark Quant utilized a Monte Carlo simulation to analyze Bitcoin prices, providing a six-month forecast for the digital asset. The Monte Carlo model, a computational method, predicts prices and assesses risk through random sampling, generating various scenarios based on volatility and market trends. Starting with an initial price of $82,655, the study estimates Bitcoin's average final price by the end of September 2025 to be $258,445. However, the broader prediction range suggests Bitcoin prices could fluctuate between $51,430 (5th percentile return) and $713,000 (95th percentile return). It is crucial to note that the Monte Carlo model heavily relies on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes asset values follow a random path with a constant drift parameter. This analysis incorporates Bitcoin's inherent volatility, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. Essentially, Monte Carlo analysis is as uncertain as 'rolling the dice.' Last week, Quant also highlighted the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market capitalization and the global liquidity index, suggesting that the total market cap could reach a new high of over $4 trillion by the second quarter of 2025.