Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $106,340 as of May 21, 2025, just 2.5% below its all-time high of $109,114. While recent price action has shown hesitation near key resistance, on-chain indicators point to a resilient market structure, with the realized price metric suggesting that long-term holders remain in profit and that a broader recovery phase may be underway.Realized Price Reveals Profitable Conditions for 2025 InvestorsThe realized price—a blockchain-based metric representing the average price at which BTC was last moved—stands at $93,266 for the 2025 investor cohort. With Bitcoin currently trading at $106,340, these investors are sitting on an average unrealized gain of approximately 14%, reinforcing the narrative of renewed profitability across the market.Unlike headline-grabbing all-time highs, the realized price provides a deeper view of investor sentiment and cost basis, making it one of the most effective tools for identifying market health and potential inflection points.Historical Context: Capitulation and Rebound PatternsThroughout Bitcoin’s history, dips below the realized price have often marked capitulation phases and cyclical market bottoms:January 2024: Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, BTC briefly fell below its realized cost basis before rebounding.August 2024: A sharp correction during the yen carry trade unwind drove Bitcoin to $49,000, once again pushing prices below realized value and triggering a capitulation event.Most recently, BTC reclaimed its 2025 realized price level on April 22, indicating that the worst of the selling pressure may be behind, and signaling the beginning of a more constructive market phase.Realized Capitalization Hits All-Time HighAnother important metric, realized capitalization—which measures the aggregate value of all BTC based on their last on-chain movement—has climbed to a record $906 billion, according to CryptoSlate. This is the fourth consecutive weekly high, reflecting sustained investor confidence and increasing capital commitment to the Bitcoin network, even as price hovers near record levels.Beyond All-Time Highs: Why Realized Price Matters MoreWhen Bitcoin first exceeded $20,000 in 2017, the realized price lagged far behind at $5,149, revealing a speculative mania. Similarly, in 2021, BTC hit $69,000 while the realized price was well below. In contrast, the 2018 bear market bottom at $3,200 saw BTC’s market price converge with the realized price, illustrating the indicator’s role as a reliable support level during downturns.As the realized price steadily climbs across cycles, it reflects the maturing investor base, growing network value, and deeper capital inflows. Therefore, comparing cycle peaks alone—$69,000 in 2021 vs. over $100,000 in 2025—misses the larger trend of market development and foundation building.Foundations Strengthen as Bitcoin Eyes BreakoutWith BTC trading comfortably above its realized price and the majority of newer investors now in profit, the market appears structurally healthy. While price remains just below all-time highs, the combination of strong realized price support, rising realized cap, and declining capitulation risk points to the possibility of sustained upside momentum in the near term.As analysts shift focus from speculative peaks to cost-basis fundamentals, realized price continues to serve as a benchmark for evaluating long-term market strength.
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Hui Xin
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