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Lombard Odier: "Big and Beautiful" U.S. Fiscal Bill Offers Limited Economic Boost, Worsens Deficit Outlook

07/07/2025 18:59

According to a recent analysis by Lombard Odier, the so-called “Big and Beautiful” U.S. fiscal bill may do little to support macroeconomic growth, while significantly deteriorating the country's fiscal position.Key Points:$4 Trillion Deficit Expansion Expected: Strategic analyst Filippo Pallotti warns the bill could increase the U.S. federal deficit by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade. If tax cuts included in the bill are made permanent, the fiscal shortfall could grow even larger.Limited Stimulus Impact: The agency finds little reason for optimism, stating that most of the tax cuts are unlikely to meaningfully boost consumer spending or drive economic growth.Debt-to-GDP Rising: Despite projected increases in tariff revenues, the U.S. public debt-to-GDP ratio is still expected to reach around 119% by 2034.Cuts to Safety Nets: The most significant spending reductions are set to affect Medicare and food assistance programs, potentially increasing pressure on low-income households.Lombard Odier concludes that while the bill is branded as a bold fiscal move, it poses substantial long-term risks to U.S. fiscal stability with limited short-term macroeconomic benefits.

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