CITIC Securities: U.S. Inflation Pressures May Gradually Intensify in H2 2025

According to a report from CITIC Securities, inflationary pressure in the United States is expected to re-emerge in the second half of 2025, driven in part by the cost-passing effects of renewed tariff policies under former President Donald Trump.The analysis highlights that major U.S. retailers, manufacturers, and automotive companies have already issued price increase notices, indicating an industry-wide shift in pricing strategies. CITIC noted that U.S. firms have both the willingness and capacity to pass higher costs on to consumers, making tariffs a potentially significant contributor to rising inflation.Additionally, leading macroeconomic indicators have started signaling a potential upward trend in inflation, suggesting that the disinflationary environment of the past few quarters may be coming to an end.“Under the current policy environment, inflation pressures in the U.S. are likely to gradually emerge over the coming months,” the report concludes.The warning comes ahead of key economic events in July, including the July 16 CPI report and the Federal Reserve’s July 30 FOMC meeting, both of which could reshape market expectations for monetary policy in the second half of the year.