Key TakeawaysNew Record: Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $124,450 during early Asian trading Thursday before pulling back.Mixed Signals: Technical charts show signs of overheating, but on-chain data points to further upside.Funding Rates Low: Metrics indicate the market is not yet in peak euphoria, with limited short-term profit-taking.Bitcoin (BTC) touched a fresh record high of $124,450 on Thursday, briefly breaking past its previous all-time levels before retreating to around $121,670 at press time. The move sparked debate among traders: has the rally topped out, or is this a healthy pause before the next leg higher?On-Chain Data Suggests Bitcoin Rally Not OverDespite the sharp intraday pullback, on-chain metrics from CryptoQuant show no clear signs of a cycle top. Key indicators, including funding rates and short-term holder (STH) profit-taking, remain well below levels seen during past market peaks.Bitcoin funding rates and STH SOPR. Source: CryptoQuantFunding Rates: While funding has ticked higher, indicating more traders betting long, the increase is still modest compared to overheated periods in previous cycles.Short-Term Profit Taking: The STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) sits at 1.01, meaning only mild profit-taking despite strong gains. This contrasts with March and November 2024, when aggressive selling followed similar rallies.CoinGlass Peak Models: Analysis from CoinGlass’s “30 Bull Market Peak Indicators” shows Bitcoin remains far from historical overbought extremes, leaving room for potential continuation toward the $187,000 target suggested by some models, according to Cointelegraph.Technical Indicators Warn of Possible Short-Term TopNot all analysts are convinced the rally can keep climbing in the immediate term. Captain Faibik, a popular market commentator, noted a confluence of bearish technical patterns after the latest breakout:TD Sequential: A “9th TD sell candle” has appeared on the daily chart, a pattern often preceding short-term reversals.RSI Divergence: The daily Relative Strength Index shows bearish divergence, indicating weakening buying momentum.Rising Wedge: This chart pattern signals fading bullish pressure and is commonly followed by pullbacks.On multiple timeframes, Bitcoin’s RSI hit overbought readings — 72 (4-hour), 71 (12-hour), and 70 (daily) — before prices retreated from $124K to $121K. In July, similar RSI conditions preceded a 6% decline to $115K.What’s Next for BTC?While the short-term setup shows risk for a deeper pullback, history suggests RSI overbought signals don’t always mark cycle tops. Bitcoin’s trajectory will likely depend on the balance between institutional inflows, macro liquidity conditions, and spot ETF demand in the coming weeks.If institutional buying remains strong, analysts say BTC could still push beyond current highs — with upside targets above $150K and even $187K in bullish scenarios. Conversely, a break below key support at $118K–$120K could signal a steeper correction.Bitcoin’s rally to $124,450 has split opinion between bulls eyeing much higher levels and traders bracing for a near-term pullback. For now, on-chain metrics lean bullish, while technicals flash caution — setting the stage for heightened volatility ahead.
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