U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls May Be Revised Down by 1 Million, Fueling Fed Rate Cut Bets

Key TakeawaysEconomists warn the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may cut up to 1 million jobs from prior payroll estimates.Wells Fargo and others forecast an 800,000-job downward revision, averaging 67,000 fewer jobs per month.A major revision would highlight labor market weakness and strengthen expectations for a September Fed rate cut.Labor Market Set for Major RevisionThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release revised annual non-farm payroll (NFP) data on Tuesday. Economists from Wells Fargo, Cointelegraph, and Pansen Macro expect the March 2025 job tally to come in 800,000 lower than earlier reported. This implies the economy added 67,000 fewer jobs per month than initially thought.Nomura Securities, Bank of America, and RBC go further, projecting the revision could approach 1 million jobs.Fed Rate Cut Expectations RiseA sharp downward adjustment would confirm that the U.S. labor market slowed more than previously recognized in 2024, reinforcing the case for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.Markets already price in a September rate reduction, with traders betting on at least a 0.25% cut, according to CME FedWatch data.Analysts suggest weaker jobs data could accelerate easing, even as inflation concerns persist.