Bitcoin's Decoupling from Global M2 Supply Sparks Debate Among Analysts

According to ChainCatcher, since mid-2025, Bitcoin has begun to decouple from the growth of the global M2 money supply, which includes cash, demand deposits, and time deposits. This trend became more pronounced at the beginning of 2026. Historically, the correlation between Bitcoin and M2 has been a basis for bullish predictions, but analysts are now deeply divided on this phenomenon. A report from Fidelity Digital Assets in January maintained an optimistic outlook, suggesting that as the global monetary easing cycle begins and the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening plan ends, the M2 growth rate will continue to rise in 2026, benefiting Bitcoin's price. Analyst MartyParty predicts that Bitcoin's price will rebound to catch up with M2 growth. However, Mister Crypto points out that Bitcoin's decoupling from M2 often signals a market peak, followed by a 2-4 year bear market. The founder of Capriole Investments believes the decoupling reflects the risk of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin's encryption. Despite the uncertainty, investors still view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.