Agent of "1011 Insider Whale": Comparing the current Bitcoin trend with that of 2022 is absurd.

Garrett Jin, an agent for "1011 Insider Whale," published an article on the X platform stating that recent comparisons between analysts and 2022 BTC price movements are utterly absurd. The underlying logic differs fundamentally in long-term price patterns, macroeconomic background, investor composition, and supply/holding structure. 1. Macroeconomic Background: In March 2022, the US was in a high-inflation, interest rate hike cycle, with capital primarily seeking risk aversion. The current macroeconomic environment is the opposite: CPI and the US risk-free interest rate are declining, the AI ​​technological revolution strengthens the possibility of a long-term deflationary cycle, interest rates have entered a rate-cutting phase, and capital behavior reflects a risk-averse attitude. 2. Technical Structure: 2021-2022 saw a weekly M-top structure, while the current weekly chart shows a break below the ascending channel, which is more likely a bear trap before a rebound back into the channel. The $62,000 to $80,850 range has seen significant consolidation and turnover, providing better risk-reward for bullish positions. 3. Investor Structure: The market was retail-dominated from 2020 to 2022. Starting in 2023, the introduction of BTC ETFs introduced structural long-term holders, locking up supply and significantly reducing volatility. BTC volatility has shifted from a historical 80%-150% to 30%-60%. The biggest difference between the current (early 2026) and 2022 BTC investor structure is that the market has shifted from retail-dominated, highly leveraged speculation to institutional-dominated, structurally long-term holding.