Wintermute: The four-year cycle is becoming obsolete; liquidity and investor attention are the new drivers for the crypto market.

Wintermute, in an article published on the X platform, stated that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is becoming obsolete. Market performance is no longer determined by a self-fulfilling time narrative, but rather by the flow of liquidity and the concentration of investor attention. Wintermute's over-the-counter (OTC) flow data shows that the transmission of crypto-native wealth weakened in 2025. ETFs and DATs have evolved into "walled gardens," providing sustained demand for large-cap assets, but capital does not naturally rotate into the broader market. 2025 became an extremely concentrated year as retail investor interest shifted to stocks, with altcoin rallies averaging 20 days, down from 60 days in 2024. For the market to break free from the limitations of mainstream cryptocurrencies in 2026, at least one of the following three things needs to happen: 1. ETFs and DATs expand their investment scope, with ETF applications for SOL and XRP already emerging. 2. Mainstream cryptocurrencies perform strongly, with a strong rally in Bitcoin or ETH potentially generating a wealth effect and spreading to the wider market. 3. Retail investor attention is shifting from stocks (AI, rare earths, quantum mechanics) back to cryptocurrencies, bringing new capital inflows and stablecoin minting. The outcome in 2026 will depend on whether one of these catalysts can significantly broaden liquidity beyond a few large-cap assets, or whether centralization will continue.