Analysis: If Rick Rieder becomes the new Federal Reserve Chairman, he may cut interest rates three times this year.

On January 28, Rick Rieder, a Wall Street veteran, was seen as a potential market-centric approach to the Federal Reserve. Last September, he advocated for a more aggressive 50-basis-point rate cut, rather than the Fed's then-preferred 25-basis-point gradual pace. He also opposed forward guidance from the central bank on future interest rate movements, the so-called "dot plot." Economists at Evercore ISI, including Krishna Guha, wrote earlier this week, "He will maintain a dovish interest rate stance and may advocate for three rate cuts this year." Currently, the interest rate swap market is only pricing in fewer than two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. However, the SOFR options market has recently seen a surge in positions that would benefit from multiple rate cuts, aiming to lower the federal funds rate to as low as 1.5% by the end of this year, significantly lower than the current pricing of approximately 3.2% in the interest rate swap market. (Jinshi)