Wintermute: Bitcoin has been fluctuating for about 60 days, and continued outflows from ETFs indicate that selling pressure is dominant in the US.

According to Wintermute analysis, Bitcoin's price has been consolidating between $85,000 and $94,000 for about 60 days, with selling pressure in the US market becoming a key factor determining its short-term direction. While Bitcoin briefly rose to $97,000 in early January, it failed to gain sustained buying support and subsequently fell back to the middle of the range. Wintermute points out that market momentum is highly correlated with ETF fund flows: the January rally was accompanied by net inflows into ETFs, while the recent pullback corresponds to record outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs. Simultaneously, the Coinbase premium has turned negative, indicating that US counterparties are generally net sellers, and net inflows of institutional funds through ETFs and corporate treasuries have turned negative, putting pressure on prices. The analysis suggests that for a successful breakout from the current range, it's crucial to monitor whether ETF fund flows and the Coinbase premium simultaneously turn positive. Until then, close attention should be paid to the support level around $85,000. This week's intensive macroeconomic events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell's speech, technology company earnings reports, and progress in tariff negotiations, may become potential catalysts for breaking the deadlock.