In its latest weekly report, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin is still consolidating around several structurally important price levels on multiple chains, with the market in a delicate balance between holder confidence and marginal demand. The report indicates that short-term holder sentiment remains weak, with the lower edge of the current price compression range (-1 standard deviation) at approximately $83,400. This level constitutes key recent support; a break below it could lead to a further retracement to around the true market average of approximately $80,700. Glassnode also stated that overall fund flows have stabilized, ETF selling pressure has eased, and spot market positions have shown initial improvement, particularly in the offshore market, indicating a gradual recovery in buyer interest. Regarding derivatives, financing rates remain neutral, leverage levels are low, and prices are limited by speculative factors. However, position adjustments in the options market remain cautious, with a shift towards bearish skew, increased short-term protection costs, and dealer gamma values falling below zero, suggesting potentially more volatile prices during periods of heightened volatility. The report argues that the key to future price movements lies in whether spot and ETF demand can continue to recover. If funds continue to flow in and are accompanied by stronger spot buying, prices are expected to stabilize and continue to rise. Conversely, if downside hedging demand continues to increase, the market may remain volatile or even face a deeper correction.
Alex
