Agent of "1011 Insider Whale": Multiple structural factors have prevented ETH and BTC from rising along with other risk assets.

Garrett Jin, an agent for the "1011 Insider Whale," published a lengthy analysis of current market dynamics on the X platform. He pointed out that multiple structural factors have constrained the rise of ETH and BTC compared to other risky assets. The main reasons are believed to be trading cycles, market microstructure, and market manipulation by some exchanges, market makers, or speculative funds. Regarding the market background, the deleveraging decline that began in October has caused significant losses for leveraged participants, especially retail investors. From a time perspective, although BTC and ETH have underperformed in the past three years, they still outperform most assets over a six-year period. Short-term underperformance can be seen as mean reversion over a long-term cycle. As long as the narratives of BTC as "digital gold" and ETH as a core component of AI and RWA infrastructure remain valid, there is no basis for their long-term underperformance. Currently, the trading volume of BTC and ETH futures is near historical lows, indicating that the deleveraging process is nearing its end. Labeling BTC and ETH as purely risky assets is one-sided. BTC and ETH also have safe-haven attributes. The real reason for their poor performance lies within the crypto market itself: the market is in the late stages of a deleveraging cycle, and participants are highly sensitive to downside risks; the market is dominated by retail investors, with institutional participation being passive; speculative funds take advantage of the high leverage of retail investors and the market's microstructure to create volatility through concentrated selling during periods of low liquidity, thereby triggering a chain of liquidations.