Citigroup: Half of the risks supporting gold may subside later this year.

Citigroup stated on Friday that gold investment allocations are supported by a series of intertwined geopolitical and economic risks, but about half of these risks may subside later this year. Citigroup indicated that some core risk factors supporting gold demand—including concerns about US government debt and AI uncertainty—could keep gold prices above historical averages. However, the bank estimates that most of the risks currently priced into gold will not truly materialize by 2026, or even if they do, they will not last beyond 2026. The bank added: “We see the Trump administration striving to achieve ‘American-style gold stability’ by the 2026 midterm elections, and we also see the Russia-Ukraine conflict ending and the situation in Iran finally easing, all of which would mean risks are lower than current levels. If Warsh’s nomination is approved, this would further confirm our long-held view that the Federal Reserve maintains its political independence, which is another medium-term negative factor affecting gold prices.” (Jinshi)