India's Record Debt Issuance Expected to Impact Bond Market

On February 2, market participants expressed concerns over potential losses in India's bond market due to the government's record-high debt issuance plan. According to Jin10, India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced during the budget speech on Sunday that New Delhi will borrow 17.2 trillion rupees (approximately $187 billion) in the new fiscal year starting April 1. This figure represents an 18% increase from the revised estimate for the current fiscal year and exceeds survey forecasts of 16.5 trillion rupees. Traders from Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company and Ujjivan Small Finance Bank predict that the increased supply could lead to a rise in the 10-year government bond yield by 4 to 5 basis points on Monday. ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd. anticipates that yields may climb to 7% in the coming weeks. The rising financing costs could further strain India's economy, which is already dealing with high tariffs from the United States, while the central bank has limited scope for further rate cuts to support growth. Bond yields are currently at their highest level in nearly a year due to large-scale debt issuance by state governments and weakened demand from pension and insurance funds.