Barclays: US Treasury issuance is expected to remain stagnant for the second consecutive year.

Barclays interest rate strategists, in a research report, expect the U.S. Treasury to maintain its current issuance of interest-bearing bonds in the next quarter and throughout fiscal year 2026. Analyst Dhiraj Narula points out that this forecast is consistent with previous policy guidance, meaning that issuance has remained stable for two full years since the last increase in issuance between February and April 2024. Narula emphasizes in the report that the underlying fiscal situation in the U.S. remains severe. He notes, "A nearly $2 trillion annual deficit continues to put pressure on the U.S. Treasury in terms of debt issuance." While the current expectation is for the issuance to remain unchanged, Narula cautions that the U.S. Treasury stated last November that it had "begun to preliminarily consider the possibility of future increases" in auction sizes. Therefore, the upcoming quarterly refinancing announcement may reveal the latest developments in these expansion plans. (Jinshi)